Obama’s First 100 Days: This Isn't FDR   

• The deep debate in Congress about the passage of the Obama Administration's $800 billion stimulus plan, and market disappointment about the lack of detail in the long-awaited bank rescue "plan" announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has some observers like the FT's Martin Wolf openly wondering if Barak Obama's presidency hasn't already failed.
• What is becoming abundantly clear is that the Obama Administration's first 100 days will be nothing like FDR's first 100 days in 1933. In 1933, the stock market rallied as soon as FDR was sworn in, and soared some 70% for the year. In office for less than a month, the Obama honeymoon is already over. As a result, gold as the ultimate indicator of investor distrust in fiat currencies is heading back to its previous high of $1,032.
• Views are more mixed on how badly China's economy is decelerating. On the one hand, loan growth is soaring on government stimulus. On the other hand, imports continue to plunge, by 43% YoY in January. For Japan, whether or not China can replace imploding exports with domestic demand is esoteric if China is not importing any Japanese goods.
• Japanese government officials are now steeling for a Q4 GDP release on February 16 that could show Japan’s economy plunging by nearly 11% annualized, which would force the Japanese government to consider more stimulus. Yet as demands by global investors and media observers become ever shriller to do something fast, both the US and the Japanese government seem to be getting further bogged down in political debate about what to do.
• The growing sense of frustration even among politicians is leading to some off-beat proposals that are probably even worse ideas than the governments are currently debating, like the issue of Japanese government (versus Bank of Japan) currency, something that has only been done historically during wartime.
• The next downleg in stock prices could erupt any day, as the US and certainly the Japanese government can't seem to get any traction on their economic stimulus plans, while bond markets are trying to discount a estimated record $3.0 billion of sovereign bond issues this year, and may begin boycotting them, as is beginning to happen in Germany.

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