 May
15, 2006. TJI suggest that investors would be better off “selling
in May and going away”
("Sell in May and Go Away?" 05.15.06 Market
Letter) to return in the fall.
The Nikkei 225 has just slipped
from a high of 17,154, but subsequently falls some 18% to
a low of 14,000 and continues to consolidate on concerns of
slowing global growth.
October
31, 2005. TJI questions market valuations and popularity of
the new Internet darlings such as Livedoor and Rakuten
("Japan''s Internet Intrepreneurs, Where''s the Value?",
10.31.06 Market Letter) In January
2006, questions surface suggesting that Livedoor was playing
games with its accounting.
A full-scale investigation reveals major accounting fraud
and the company is eventually pushed to delist.
Stocks of “bubble priced” speculative Internet
stocks plunge to only fractions of their prior value.
January
31, 2005. TJI recommends buying basic materials and avoiding
technology
(“TJI Loves Basic Materials, Hates Tech”,
1.31.05 Market Letter). By December 2005, the mining and non-ferrous
metal sectors are up 71% and 67.6% respectively, while the
electronics sector has managed only 25.9% and the telecom
sector a mere 9.2%.
January
16,2005. TJI deems a dollar rally and a Nikkei 225 at 14,000
to be the surprises for 2005
(“2005 Surprises: Dollar Rally, Nikkei at 14,000”,
1.16.05 Market Letter). The consensus is that the dollar will
weaken to \80/$ and that Japan’s economy will again
decelerate. But as of December 2005, the Yen is some 18% weaker
against the US dollar, while the Nikkei 225 hit 14,000 on
its way to 15,000 in December 2005.
November
4, 2004. TJI declares that the real investment story in Japan
is deep value stocks
(“Deep Value Stocks: The Real Investment Story in
Japan”, 11.4.04 Market Letter). Investors continue
to revalue financially weak stocks previously priced for bankruptcy
as going concerns. Stocks like Haseko Corp. (1808) surge from
\43 per share in January 2003 to \470 by December 2005.
August
16, 2004. TJI warns of a coming oil shock
(“The Coming Oil Shock: Already Having an Impact”,
8.16.04 Market Letter), predicting $80/bbl as oil breaches
$45/bbl. A TJI Oil Shock Portfolio is created to capitalize
on higher oil prices. Oil subsequently rises to $70/bbl and
could rise further, while the TJI Oil Shock portfolio is up
53% as of December 2005.
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