The Japan Investor Archive

2007 YEAR ARCHIVES

Date	Title

May-12	Fate of Japanese Stocks: In the Hands of Foreigners
May-5	Japan Market: Down So Long It Looks Like Up
Apr-28	Escaping Japan’s Potential Value Trap Requires Good Corporate Governance
Apr-21	The Japan Discount and Bureaucratic Parochialism
Apr-14	Continue to Overweight Commodities During the Early Recession Phase
Apr-7	Does This Short-Covering Rally Have Legs?
Mar-31	Japan The Last Shoe to Drop in Asia’s Shift Away from the US Dollar
Mar-24	Has the Fat Lady Sung?: Nikkei 225 Will Turn When US Treasuries Turn
Mar-17	Japanese Yen Poised to Renew 1995 High of JPY79/US$
Mar-10	De Ja Vu (Is This Japan Circa 1992 ?)
Mar-3	Largest Ever Peacetime Liquidity (Credit) Crisis
Feb-25	Japan Debates Its Own Sovereign Wealth Fund
Feb-18	As The US Credit Crisis Darkens, Japan Basic Materials Bargains Abound
Feb-11	Preserve Capital First, Then Look for Positive Catalysts
Feb-4	Looking for Japan Equity Market Catalysts
Jan-28	Pricing Japanese Banks for Bankruptcy is Overdoing It
Jan-21	How Far Down Will This Correction Take Us?
Jan-14	The Japan Shoe Has Already Dropped
Jan-7	How Far Will this Commodity Bubble Go?
Dec-31	Japan: Disappointment in 2007, Low Expectations for 2008
Dec-24	Japan Passing: Avoiding a Value Trap?
Dec-17	Investing in Uncertain Times: Think Like a Sovereign Wealth Fund
Dec-10	Japan For Sale, Yen by Yen
Nov-26	Japan’s LDP: No Bread? Let Them Eat Cake
Nov-19	Yen Carry Trade: Dire Threat or Mere Poltergeist?
Nov-12	Pollyana, Cassandra or Praetorian?
Nov-5	Center of the Financial Universe
Oct-29	Yen Headed for a Break-Out to the Downside
Oct-22	Monetary Inflation, the Price of Oil, and Gold
Oct-15	The Yen Carry Trade: It’s Baaack!
Oct-8	Revived Liquidity To Drive BRICs Plays and Property
Oct-1	Japan: A Market of Stocks, Not a Stock Market
Sep-24	Oil at $84/bbl, the Bernanke Put, and Japan
Sep-17	Japanese Politics: “Whose on First?”
Sep-10	Japanese Property: Fear Overcomes Greed
Sep-3	How Would Japan Fair in a US Recession?
Aug-27	The Yen: Fleeing Foreigners Versus Not-So Desperate Japanese Housewives
Aug-20	Central Banks in Crisis Mode
Aug-13	When ""Stasis"" Looks Relatively Attractive
Aug-6	Who are the Real ""Rank Amateurs""?
Jul-30	Wall Street, Not Main Street Contagion
Jul-23	Yen Carry Trade Not the Only Reason for the Yen's Weakness
Jul-16	Japan Inc. ""Deactivates"" Activist Investors
Jul-9	Weak Yen a Boon to Japan's ""Old Economy"" Stocks
Jul-2	Japan's Small Caps: Is There Life After Livedoor?
Jun-25	“Old Economy” Will Drive Nikkei 225 to the 20,000 Milestone
Jun-18	Japan's Ascending Shareholder Rights Movement
Jun-11	Making Money in Japanese Real Estate, Despite Periodic Spurts in Bond Yields
Jun-4	If It Walks Like a Duck and Quacks Like a Duck, It Must Be a Bubble
May-28	Sticking With the Basics
May-21	More Polarization: Only the Truly Global Will Prosper
May-14	Betting Against Commodities Could Still Be
Apr-30	The Global Commodities, Construction Boom Link
Apr-23	Vista Sputters, Semi Stocks Shudder
Apr-16	IMF World Economic Outlook Supports The Case for Commodities and Japanese Shipping, Shipbuilding
Apr-9	Chasing Yield in a Low Interest Rate World
Apr-2	Polarization in Japan Means its a Market of Stocks, Not a Stock Market
Mar-26	Reflation and Growth in Global Trade: Recipes for Winning Stock Picks
Mar-19	Containing Contagion is the Key
Mar-12	Value and Yield Weather The Sell-Off Very Well
Mar-5	Excess Liquidiy and Extreme Bouts of Volatility Equal Investment Opportunities in Value Stocks
Feb-26	Relationship Investing Pays Bigtime in Japan
Feb-19	Japan’s Growth Surprise: Real or Statistical Fluke?
Feb-12	Enough on the BOJ Already. What About Vista?
Feb-5	A Tale of Two Markets
Jan-29	Japan’s Recovery Tide Will Not Lift All Boats
Jan-12	A BOJ ""Wimp-Out""
Jan-15	A Failure to Communicate
Jan-8	Japan in the Global Markets: More Sustainability

2006 Year

2005 Year

2004 Year

2003 Year

Note: The Market Letter Archives are from TJI Market Letter's predecessor, The ABW Market Letter unless otherwise indicated.

Why You Need the TJI Market Letter

• May 15, 2006. TJI suggest that investors would be better off “selling in May and going away”
  ("Sell in May and Go Away?" 05.15.06 Market Letter) to return in the fall.
  The Nikkei 225 has just slipped from a high of 17,154, but subsequently falls some 18% to a low of 14,000 and continues to consolidate on concerns of slowing global growth.

• October 31, 2005. TJI questions market valuations and popularity of the new Internet darlings such as Livedoor and Rakuten
  ("Japan''s Internet Intrepreneurs, Where''s the Value?", 10.31.06 Market Letter) In January 2006, questions surface suggesting that Livedoor was playing games with its accounting.
  A full-scale investigation reveals major accounting fraud and the company is eventually pushed to delist.
  Stocks of “bubble priced” speculative Internet stocks plunge to only fractions of their prior value.

• January 31, 2005. TJI recommends buying basic materials and avoiding technology
  (“TJI Loves Basic Materials, Hates Tech”, 1.31.05 Market Letter). By December 2005, the mining and non-ferrous metal sectors are up 71% and 67.6% respectively, while the electronics sector has managed only 25.9% and the telecom sector a mere 9.2%.
• January 16,2005. TJI deems a dollar rally and a Nikkei 225 at 14,000 to be the surprises for 2005
  (“2005 Surprises: Dollar Rally, Nikkei at 14,000”, 1.16.05 Market Letter). The consensus is that the dollar will weaken to \80/$ and that Japan’s economy will again decelerate. But as of December 2005, the Yen is some 18% weaker against the US dollar, while the Nikkei 225 hit 14,000 on its way to 15,000 in December 2005.
• November 4, 2004. TJI declares that the real investment story in Japan is deep value stocks
  (“Deep Value Stocks: The Real Investment Story in Japan”, 11.4.04 Market Letter). Investors continue to revalue financially weak stocks previously priced for bankruptcy as going concerns. Stocks like Haseko Corp. (1808) surge from \43 per share in January 2003 to \470 by December 2005.
• August 16, 2004. TJI warns of a coming oil shock
  (“The Coming Oil Shock: Already Having an Impact”, 8.16.04 Market Letter), predicting $80/bbl as oil breaches $45/bbl. A TJI Oil Shock Portfolio is created to capitalize on higher oil prices. Oil subsequently rises to $70/bbl and could rise further, while the TJI Oil Shock portfolio is up 53% as of December 2005.
• October 27, 2003. TJI (ABW) Cautions the Market is Due for a Correction
  ("Caution: Slippery When Excessively Liquid", 10.27.03 Market Letter). Between November 4 and November 19, 2003, the Topix falls from 1,070.01 to 953.2, or some 10.9%. Bank stocks and internet darlings like Softbank tank.
• July 28, 2003. TJI (ABW) Highlights a "Dogs of the Nikkei" Portfolio
  ("The Dogs of the Nikkei", 7.28.03 Market Letter). Between July 28, 2003 and November 24, 2003, the basket of "Nikkei Dogs" has outperformed the Topix by 320%. Not bad for a bunch of "dogs".
• May 29, 2003. TJI (ABW) Says that Investors Would Do Better in Small Cap Stocks
  ("Go Small Cap, Young Man", 5.29.03 Market Letter). Japan's JASDAQ small cap index subsequently soars 56.4%, versus a 25.9% rise in the Topix between June 1, 2003 and November 3, 2003.
• March 24, 2003. TJI (ABW) Says Onset of Fighting in Iraq is Bullish for Stocks
  ("Long or Short One, It's Good for Stocks", 3.24.03 Market Letter). Japan's Topix benchmark index subsequently appreciates 33.8% to October 13, and is the best-performing market.
• August 26, 2002. TJI (ABW) Says That The Japan Market Could Renew a Post War Low
  ("More Postwar Lows?", 8.26.2002 Market Letter). Japan's Nikkei 225 subsequently hits a new postwar low of 7,607.88 in April, 2003, down 24% from the August 2002 call.
• May 6, 2002. TJI (ABW) Makes the Case for Gold.
  ("All that Glitters (Is Gold)", 5.6.2002 Market Letter). Gold subsequentlly rallies from US$300/ounce to US$420/ounce and it's still rising.