The Japan Investor Archive

Archives from 2008/2009

Date	Title

Dec-26-2011	The ECB Buys Time, But Watch China
Dec-19-2011	2012: Less Bad Will Be Good
Dec-12-2011	The Euro (and Finance) is Done; Become a Farmer?
Dec-5-2011	Central Banks Break Out the Big Liquidity Bazooka
Nov-28-2011	Seven Years of Famine
Nov-21-2011	Defacto Euro Laissez-Faire: What Will Be, Will Be
Nov-7-2011	As the Euro Circus Roils, Japan Profits Sink
Oct-31-2011	Japan's Strong Yen Conundrum
Oct-24-2011	Global Bank Stocks: It's Not Over by a Long Shot
Oct-17-2011	China Version of a Subprime Crisis?
Oct-10-2011	Can the Next Depression be Avoided?
Oct-3-2011	Euro Crisis and US Recession: This Cannot End Well
Sep-26-2011	So Much for the Bernanke Put
Sep-19-2011	Knee-Jerk Risk On
Sep-12-2011	Sinking Ever Deeper Into the Euro Debt Mire
Sep-5-2011	A Gold Bubble Should be the Least of Your Concerns
Aug-29-2011	Market Bottoms are Processes
Aug-22-2011	1% U.S. Treasury Yields and JPY70+/USD
Aug-15-2011	When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Fail
Aug-8-2011	The Recovery Market is Broken: Long Live Bonds
Aug-1-2011	The Straw That Broke the Camel's Back?
Jul-25-2011	A World Drowning in Sovereign Debt
Jul-18-2011	Is Japan the Least Dirty Shirt in the Closet?
Jul-11-2011	What Japan Needs is a Good Dose of Growth Expectations
Jul-4-2011	The EU Bailing Wire and Duct Tape Put
Jun-27-2011	Batten Down the Hatches
Jun-20-2011	June Swoon: There’s More to Come
Jun-13-2011	June Swoon: How Far, How Long?
Jun-6-2011	QE1 Deja Vu Selloff, But With No Fed Calvary
May-30-2011	If You Buy Japan Recovery, You Need One Megabank
May-23-2011	Active Managers Remain Bullish On Japan
May-16-2011	Growth Scare Tipping Point?
May-9-2011	The Beginnings of Another Growth Scare
May-2-2011	Fed Assures a Continued Debasement of USD
Apr-25-2011	Positioning for the Post QE2 Correction in Risk Trades
Apr-18-2011	Still Many Uncertainties in Japan�'s Recovery
Apr-11-2011	The BOJ's Balance Sheet and the Yen Carry Trade
Apr-4-2011	Short Yen, Long Japanese Equities
Mar-28-2011	Japan Rebuilding Costs Are Manageable
Mar-21-2011	What to Buy in Rebuilding Japan
Mar-14-2011	The Risks of Political and Natural Tectonic Shifts
Mar-7-2011	Oil Tax on the Global Recovery
Feb-28-2011	How Will Japanese Companies Spend their Cash Hoard?
Feb-21-2011	Is Investor Complacency Peaking?
Feb-14-2011	China SWFs Big on Japanese Equities
Feb-7-2011	Commodity Prices and Japan Stocks
Jan-31-2011	Japanese Small Caps
Jan-24-2011	Inflation Scare Stunts Emerging Markets Rally
Jan-17-2011	Japan as the Best Trade on Rising Rates?
Jan-10-2011	Which is Right, Bond Spreads or Exchange Rates?
Jan-3-2011	Time to Bet on the Japan Conundrum?
Dec-28-2010	Inflation Scare in First Half 2011?
Dec-20-2010	Early 2011: Don't Fight the Reflation Trade
Dec-13-2010	Forecast for 2011: Repeat of January 2010 Forecasts?
Dec-6-2010	Christmas Rally
Nov-29-2010	Top Down Jitters Versus Bottom-Up Improvement
Nov-22-2010	A Trading Turn for Japanese Equities
Nov-15-2010	Awash in Excess Liquidity?
Nov-8-2010	Japanese Equities: Bringing Up the Rear
Nov-1-2010	Japanese Companies: Learning to Embrace JPY70/USD
Oct-25-2010	China’s Transitory Rare Earth Element (REE) Monopoly
Oct-18-2010	Sell on the QE2 News?
Oct-11-2010	Japan's Megabanks: How to Destroy Shareholder Capital
Oct-4-2010	How Japan Blew Up its Consumer Finance Industry
Sep-27-2010	Buy Japanese Stocks, Not the Market or Sectors
Sep-20-2010	Intervention the Trigger for a Modest Rally in Japan Stocks
Sep-13-2010	The Teflon Yen Conundrum
Sep-6-2010	Japan's Day Late and Dollar Short Policy: - Saved by a US Treasury Bond Selloff?
Aug-30-2010	Nikkei 225 Looking at 8,000
Aug-23-2010	Still More Downside Risk in Stocks
Aug-16-2010	A Deflation-Resistant Stock: Is There Such an Animal?
Aug-9-2010	Inflationistas versus Deflationistas
Aug-2-2010	Japan's Next 15 Minutes of Fame
Jul-26-2010	Who Wants to Bet Again on a Cyclical Turn in JPY?
Jul-19-2010	Strong Yen is Bad News for Japan Stocks
Jul-0-0	Strong Yen is Bad News for Japan Stocks
Jul-12-2010	It's A Binary World Now: i.e., Risk On or Risk Off
Jul-5-2010	Japan: Stock Prices Fall Despite Better Fundamentals
Jun-28-2010	Stock Averages Continue to Break Down
Jun-21-2010	Can Japan Grow With Fiscal Austerity?
Jun-0-0	Can Japan Grow With Fiscal Austerity?
Jun-14-2010	Fiscal Austerity and the Growth Scare
Jun-7-2010	More Downside Risk
May-31-2010	A Summer of Discontent
May-24-2010	Bear Tracks
May-17-2010	Japan Now Outperforming Emerging Markets
May-10-2010	Is This the Real Interim Correction?
May-3-2010	Euro Risk, The China Bubble and
Apr-26-2010	Lots to Fret About, Yet Stock Prices Continue Rising
Apr-19-2010	Dow 11,000, Emergent Japan and Reputational Risk
Apr-12-2010	Japan's 15 Minutes of Fame
Apr-5-2010	Good Econ Data = More Meltup in the Risk Trades
Mar-29-2010	Currency Winds Now Favorable for Japan Stocks
Mar-22-2010	Don't Buy Japan, Buy (Smaller) Japan Stocks
Mar-15-2010	The Contrarian Case for Japan
Mar-8-2010	BOJ: Getting With the Program?
Mar-1-2010	Japan: The Focus is Exports to Asia
Feb-22-2010	Fed's Move is Incrementally Positive for - Japanese Equities
Feb-15-2010	Relatively Speaking, Japan Doesn't Look So Bad Now
Feb-8-2010	The Excess Liquidity Party is Over
Feb-1-2010	Interim Correction: Short & Deep or Long & Shallow?
Jan-25-2010	Central Bank Exit Strategy Jitters
Jan-18-2010	China Taps the Brakes: Japan Looking for the Accelerator
Jan-11-2011	Buy Cyclical Japan and Secular Growth Emerging
Jan-4-2010	Some Brightness for Japan in 2010
Dec-28-2008	Japan Needs to Hitch on Asia's Rising Star
Dec-21-2009	USD Reversal is the Focal Point for 2010
Dec-14-2009	Japan: Rooting for a USD Rally
Dec-7-2009	Japan’s Government Moves Allay Investor Concerns
Nov-30-2009	Next Turning Point for Japan is a Peak in JPY
Nov-23-2009	No Thanksgiving or Christmas Cheer for Japan
Nov-16-2009	Big Bank Offerings Will Weigh on Japanese Equities
Nov-0-0	Big Bank Offerings Will Weigh on Japanese Equities
Nov-9-2009	USD Carry Trade: The 500-Pound Gorilla?
Nov-2-2009	Japan: Where is the Growth Vision?
Oct-26-2009	“Japan Passing” and The impoverishment of Japan
Oct-19-2009	Not Bad for a Mere “Smoke and Mirrors” Rally
Oct-12-2009	Liquidity Driven, But Still Discounting Recovery
Oct-5-2009	Bracing for a Selloff
Sep-28-2009	Stocks Will Remain Bouyant as Long as Global Quantitative Easing Remains in Play
Sep-21-2009	The Coming Rare Earth Metals Crunch
Sep-14-2009	DPJ: Keeping the Bond Vigilantes at Bay
Sep-7-2009	China, Not DPJ Policies, Are Calling the Market Shots
Aug-31-2009	A Regime Change is Good for Japan
Aug-24-2009	Will China ""shanghai"" the Global Equity Rally?
Aug-17-2009	Capitalize on Japan's Cyclical Recovery with Small Cap Stocks
Aug-10-2009	Japan's Electronic Sector Ripe for Mega Mergers
Aug-3-2009	China Jitters Offset by US GDP Surprise
Jul-27-2009	Can Political Change Drive a Japan Rally?
Jul-20-2009	Yen as a “Haven” Currency? Don't Bet On It
Jul-13-2009	Economic Growth Scare Continues to Ripple
Jul-6-2009	Nikkei 225: Summer Trading Range
Jun-29-2009	J-REITs: Cash for Trash
Jun-22-2009	Japan Stocks: Time to Look at the Small Cap Trees
Jun-15-2009	Japanese Stocks Return to a Sense of Normalcy
Jun-8-2009	Nikkei 225 Now Eyeing 10,000
Jun-1-2009	Excess Liquidity versus Fundamentals-Driven Rallies
May-25-2009	Less Bad is No Longer Enough to Maintain the Rally
May-18-2009	Unruly Bond Market Could Nip Stock Rally In the Bud
May-11-2009	Less Bad is Good for Stocks, But A 200-Day MA Test Looms
May-4-2009	(Don’t) Sell in May and (Don’t) Go Away?
Apr-27-2009	Global Stocks: Climbing a Wall of Worry
Apr-20-2009	Bearish Yen, Bullish Japanese Stocks
Apr-13-2009	Japan's Stimulus: Whatever it Takes to Restore Growth
Apr-6-2009	The Turn in the Nikkei 225 Looks Sustainable
Mar-30-2009	Japan: Finally Moving on Economic Stimulus
Mar-23-2009	Japan's GDP Could Fall Nearly 6% in 2009
Mar-16-2009	Japan PKO (Price Keeping Operation)
Mar-9-2009	A Record Bear Market for A Record Expansion
Mar-2-2009	Global Equities: The Next Downleg Begins
Feb-23-2009	The Financial Storm Will Also Engulf the Yen
Feb-16-2009	Obama’s First 100 Days: This Isn't FDR
Feb-9-2009	China: Hope of the Industrialized World
Feb-2-2009	Economic Shock and Awe: Next Downleg A’Comin?
Jan-26-2009	Is JPY Now Like Oil at $147/bbl?
Jan-19-2009	Et Tu China?
Jan-12-2009	From Japan: The Best Ideas for 2009
Jan-5-2009	No Recovery in Japan’s Economy Until Early 2010
Jan-0-0	No Recovery in Japan’s Economy Until Early 2010
Dec-22-2008	Investors to BOJ and LDP: It’s Not Enough
Dec-15-2008	Japan’s Economic Countermeasures: Too Little, Too Late or Not Relevant?
Dec-8-2008	Japan’s Longest Postwar Recession: The Dark Side of Globalization
Dec-1-2008	Japan: Does Anybody Get It Here?
Nov-24-2008	Market Control is Slip-Sliding Away from Regulators
Nov-17-2008	Will Japan’s Crossborder M&A Boom Benefit Shareholders?
Nov-10-2008	Japan: There’s a Reason Why its Cheap?
Nov-3-2008	Japanese Investors Begin to Counter - Foreign, Prop Desk Selling
Oct-27-2008	Good Japanese Stocks Being Thrown Out With the Bathwater
Oct-20-2008	Japan: Maximum Blood and Fear = Buy?
Oct-13-2008	The Crash of 2008
Oct-6-2008	The Irony: A Strong USD Index
Sep-29-2008	Even With TARP, It’ll Be A Slow, Painful Recovery
Sep-22-2008	Timeline of a Systemic Banking Crisis
Sep-15-2008	This Bear Market is only Half Over
Sep-8-2008	J-REIT Consolidation and M&A Opportunities
Sep-1-2008	Japan’s New Stimulus Plan: Mere Political Pork?
Aug-25-2008	Japanese Banks’ Value Trap
Aug-18-2008	Japan’s Recession: Neither Shallow or Short
Aug-11-2008	Falling Commodity Prices: Should We Cheer or Fear?
Aug-4-2008	Surviving the Bear Market in Japan: Using 65-Day Divergence
Jul-27-2008	Nikkei 225: Back to 12,000
Jul-21-2008	Is the Short Financials/Long Commodities Trade Over?
Jul-14-2008	Top Down, Cash (And Commodities) Are King
Jul-7-2008	The Race is On to Build Global Solar Cell Capacity
Jun-30-2008	M&A Opportunities in Japan's Bombed-Out REITs
Jun-23-2008	Japan: Lessons from the 1970s Oil Shocks
Jun-16-2008	False Dawn for Japan Stocks?
Jun-9-2008	Japan’s Turn to Outperform-Relatively Speaking
Jun-2-2008	Japan: Score a Big One for the Activists
May-26-2008	Japan: We’ll Take Basic Materials Over the Banks
May-19-2008	Japanese Stocks the Benefit from the Perfect Storm in Oil Prices
May-12-2008	Fate of Japanese Stocks: In the Hands of Foreigners
May-5-2008	Japan Market: Down So Long It Looks Like Up
Apr-28-2008	Escaping Japan’s Potential Value Trap Requires Good Corporate Governance
Apr-21-2008	The Japan Discount and Bureaucratic Parochialism
Apr-14-2008	Continue to Overweight Commodities During the Early Recession Phase
Apr-7-2008	Does This Short-Covering Rally Have Legs?
Mar-31-2008	Japan The Last Shoe to Drop in Asia’s Shift Away from the US Dollar
Mar-24-2008	Has the Fat Lady Sung?: Nikkei 225 Will Turn When US Treasuries Turn
Mar-17-2008	Japanese Yen Poised to Renew 1995 High of JPY79/US$
Mar-10-2008	De Ja Vu (Is This Japan Circa 1992 ?)
Mar-3-2008	Largest Ever Peacetime Liquidity (Credit) Crisis
Feb-25-2008	Japan Debates Its Own Sovereign Wealth Fund
Feb-18-2008	As The US Credit Crisis Darkens, Japan Basic Materials Bargains Abound
Feb-11-2008	Preserve Capital First, Then Look for Positive Catalysts
Feb-4-2008	Looking for Japan Equity Market Catalysts
Jan-28-2008	Pricing Japanese Banks for Bankruptcy is Overdoing It
Jan-21-2008	How Far Down Will This Correction Take Us?
Jan-14-2008	The Japan Shoe Has Already Dropped

2007 Year

2006 Year

2005 Year

2004 Year

2003 Year

Note: The Market Letter Archives are from TJI Market Letter's predecessor, The ABW Market Letter unless otherwise indicated.

Why You Need the TJI Market Letter

• May 15, 2006. TJI suggest that investors would be better off “selling in May and going away”
  ("Sell in May and Go Away?" 05.15.06 Market Letter) to return in the fall.
  The Nikkei 225 has just slipped from a high of 17,154, but subsequently falls some 18% to a low of 14,000 and continues to consolidate on concerns of slowing global growth.

• October 31, 2005. TJI questions market valuations and popularity of the new Internet darlings such as Livedoor and Rakuten
  ("Japan''s Internet Intrepreneurs, Where''s the Value?", 10.31.06 Market Letter) In January 2006, questions surface suggesting that Livedoor was playing games with its accounting.
  A full-scale investigation reveals major accounting fraud and the company is eventually pushed to delist.
  Stocks of “bubble priced” speculative Internet stocks plunge to only fractions of their prior value.

• January 31, 2005. TJI recommends buying basic materials and avoiding technology
  (“TJI Loves Basic Materials, Hates Tech”, 1.31.05 Market Letter). By December 2005, the mining and non-ferrous metal sectors are up 71% and 67.6% respectively, while the electronics sector has managed only 25.9% and the telecom sector a mere 9.2%.
• January 16,2005. TJI deems a dollar rally and a Nikkei 225 at 14,000 to be the surprises for 2005
  (“2005 Surprises: Dollar Rally, Nikkei at 14,000”, 1.16.05 Market Letter). The consensus is that the dollar will weaken to \80/$ and that Japan’s economy will again decelerate. But as of December 2005, the Yen is some 18% weaker against the US dollar, while the Nikkei 225 hit 14,000 on its way to 15,000 in December 2005.
• November 4, 2004. TJI declares that the real investment story in Japan is deep value stocks
  (“Deep Value Stocks: The Real Investment Story in Japan”, 11.4.04 Market Letter). Investors continue to revalue financially weak stocks previously priced for bankruptcy as going concerns. Stocks like Haseko Corp. (1808) surge from \43 per share in January 2003 to \470 by December 2005.
• August 16, 2004. TJI warns of a coming oil shock
  (“The Coming Oil Shock: Already Having an Impact”, 8.16.04 Market Letter), predicting $80/bbl as oil breaches $45/bbl. A TJI Oil Shock Portfolio is created to capitalize on higher oil prices. Oil subsequently rises to $70/bbl and could rise further, while the TJI Oil Shock portfolio is up 53% as of December 2005.
• October 27, 2003. TJI (ABW) Cautions the Market is Due for a Correction
  ("Caution: Slippery When Excessively Liquid", 10.27.03 Market Letter). Between November 4 and November 19, 2003, the Topix falls from 1,070.01 to 953.2, or some 10.9%. Bank stocks and internet darlings like Softbank tank.
• July 28, 2003. TJI (ABW) Highlights a "Dogs of the Nikkei" Portfolio
  ("The Dogs of the Nikkei", 7.28.03 Market Letter). Between July 28, 2003 and November 24, 2003, the basket of "Nikkei Dogs" has outperformed the Topix by 320%. Not bad for a bunch of "dogs".
• May 29, 2003. TJI (ABW) Says that Investors Would Do Better in Small Cap Stocks
  ("Go Small Cap, Young Man", 5.29.03 Market Letter). Japan's JASDAQ small cap index subsequently soars 56.4%, versus a 25.9% rise in the Topix between June 1, 2003 and November 3, 2003.
• March 24, 2003. TJI (ABW) Says Onset of Fighting in Iraq is Bullish for Stocks
  ("Long or Short One, It's Good for Stocks", 3.24.03 Market Letter). Japan's Topix benchmark index subsequently appreciates 33.8% to October 13, and is the best-performing market.
• August 26, 2002. TJI (ABW) Says That The Japan Market Could Renew a Post War Low
  ("More Postwar Lows?", 8.26.2002 Market Letter). Japan's Nikkei 225 subsequently hits a new postwar low of 7,607.88 in April, 2003, down 24% from the August 2002 call.
• May 6, 2002. TJI (ABW) Makes the Case for Gold.
  ("All that Glitters (Is Gold)", 5.6.2002 Market Letter). Gold subsequentlly rallies from US$300/ounce to US$420/ounce and it's still rising.